Erica Thompson (UCL)

Title: Escaping from Epidemiological Model Land
Abstract: First, I’ll talk about my book, Escape From Model Land, and the concepts that I have been exploring that relate to model use and interpretation in a variety of contexts. In particular, how we are able to make useful statements about the real world based on the outputs of models, the generation of uncertainty ranges from ensembles of models, the role of expert judgement and values. Second, I will describe some recent work with the Lancet Commission on strengthening the use of epidemiological modelling, and reflect on possible avenues for model evaluation and improvement.