Rory Gibb (UCL)

Title: “People and nature” perspectives on ecosystems, climate change and infectious disease

Abstract: Zoonotic and vector-borne infectious diseases are among the most direct and visible human health consequences of anthropogenic environmental change. Yet despite growing knowledge that ecosystems, climate and infection are intrinsically linked, we still have a poor understanding of the net impacts of climate and biodiversity change on the burden of human disease. I will explore the opportunities and challenges for addressing these attribution gaps, drawing on examples from my own research, which applies computational and data science tools to study the dynamics and drivers of infection in socio-ecological systems. Although global environmental change is driving predictable shifts in reservoir host ecology, I will show that the realised drivers of emerging disease outbreaks are highly heterogeneous between different disease systems worldwide, and that our knowledge remains principally shaped by research and detection biases. I will discuss how detailed work on focal case study systems can close these gaps and identify the combined influences of climate, biodiversity change and social factors on disease dynamics, with examples including dengue, Rift Valley fever and Lassa fever.