Joint Seminar UMI-MSE: Matt Keeling (University of Warwick)

Thursday 16th May 16:00 BST

Speaker: Matt Keeling (University of Warwick.)

Title: Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic: projections and health economics

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive morbidity and mortality, as well as severe economic and social upheaval. In general, measures that promote health (such as social distancing, lock downs or even vaccines) have an economic cost – therefore, there is tension between minimising the economic losses and minimising the health losses. To create the appropriate balance between these two components requires a health economic approach where both are placed on the same scale. In this talk I’ll start by reviewing the modelling work that was undertaken in Warwick University during the pandemic, from the early model formulation, through vaccination, the relaxation of controls and projecting the Omicron outbreak. This will highlight the uses of mathematical models in providing a framework for understanding the pandemic and generating short, medium and long-term projections. Finally, I’ll return to the question of health economics to consider the cost-effectiveness of vaccination and the trade-off between national economic losses and the health benefits of short-term lock-downs.

This seminar is organised in collaboration with UMI-MSE group.