Luke Murray Kearney (University of Warwick)

Speaker: Luke Murray Kearney (University of Warwick)
Title: Data-Driven Construction and Epidemic Simulation of Age-Structured Contact Networks
Abstract: The structure of a population and the characterisation of contacts within the population are key to reliable epidemiological projections. Two main characteristics of population structure; contact heterogeneity and age have been repeatedly demonstrated to be key in epidemiological dynamics. Network structure provides a powerful and intuitive method to realise much of this population structure. Here, using data from social contact surveys, we develop an algorithm to generate the associative network structure that preserves both age-structured mixing and degree heterogeneity. We then simulate the spread of infection through the population, constrained to a given basic reproduction number (R_0) and scaled by contact duration. This allows us to assess the strength of heterogeneity and age-structure in shaping epidemiological dynamics. Showing that for COVID-like parameters, similar levels of dispersion in secondary case distribution and change in growth rate through varying lockdown measures can be captured.