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The extent of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations & deaths over winter 2021/22 crucially depends on the extent of waning immunity and behaviour changes such as return-to-work, new modelling work from JUNIPER consortium has shown.

Mathematical modelling studies that shaped the public health response to the COVID-19 in the first half of 2020, including the first national lock-down, is published today [31st May 2021] in the journal of the Royal Society. The Special Theme issue is compiled and guest edited by SPI-M scientists including JUNIPER members Drs Ellen Brooks Pollock and Leon Danon at the University of Bristol and Dr. Lorenzo Pellis at the University of Manchester.

JUNIPER consortium second research meeting took place on 17th May 2021 virtually via the Isaac Newton Institute (INI). Following on from the successful launch meeting in February 2021, this half day research meeting provided an update on the COVID-19 modelling work being undertaken across the different institutions within the consortium. Speakers also highlighted key research areas of immediate priority to support the scientific advice on the UK government's pandemic response. 

Professor Matt Keeling, from University of Warwick, and Dr Ellen Brooks-Pollock, from University of Bristol are both regular contributors to Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) and Matt is also a member of Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).

JUNIPER consortium launch meeting took place on  23rd February 2021 virtually via the Isaac Newton Institute (INI). The half day research meeting attracted more than 130 participants from the wider epidemiological and mathematical research communities. The meeting provided an introduction to who JUNIPER are, the key goals of the consortium and the current COVID-19 related research activities being undertaken by consortium members.

Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research (JUNIPER) consortium will receive £3miliion funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) to develop models and statistical approaches to provide predictions for the COVID-19 pandemic and advise UK government bodies.

The JUNIPER consortium brings together leading mathematical and statistical modellers from seven different universities who have been generating predictions, forecasts and insights that feed into a number of government scientific advisory boards.

The Juniper consortium prepared and presented notes on the patterns and growth of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant to SAGE 74 on 22nd December 2020. The document is published on the UK government's website.

Juniper consortium: Notes on the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, 22 December 2020